SurveyMonkey carried out an online poll for England, showing a 48%/49% lead for a Brexit.
The polls swing back and forward again, but the bookmakers odds continue to go one way – For Bremain.
This particular poll grabbed the attention because it is obviously conducted by a younger demographic (ask your mother if she would have answered something called Survey Monkey…) more willing to take a risk on a Brexit. They were also one of the few organisations to get the outcome of the 2015 general election correct on the back of their polling.
Just remember that in the grand scheme of things, markets really want to know how a Brexit vote would affect the US Federal Reserve’s ability to continue raising interest rates.
The Fed have hung this prospect on a faltering labour market and had therefore postponed any June move after the latest NFP. With there being only the one additional NFP report by July, as well as the old ‘data dependent while not relying on any single data release’ line being pulled out, does it essentially rule out July as well? Well if it wasn’t already.
“Without a doubt, in the last several months a number of different metrics suggest a loss of momentum in terms of the pace of improvement.”
“We believe that will turn around, we expect it to turn around, but we are taking a cautious approach.”
Of course Yellen brought up the risk of Brexit, but not being her place to do so, didn’t go into any great detail other than the tried and true:
“Would pose a significant risk to the U.S. economy and global financial market stability.”
“Our cautious approach remains appropriate.”
I’m struggling to be optimistic about July, but what would a huge NFP beat in three weeks time do for the Fed? Getting ahead of ourselves a little with the Brexit vote tomorrow, but that’s the longer term question you have to ask as you look to position yourself next.
Chart of the day
A day out from the Brexit referendum day in Asia and you have to question why you’re looking to day trade Sterling or the Euro.
There are plenty of broker backed articles doing the rounds titled: “How to trade the Brexit referendum.”
Well here’s the common sense approach published here: “YOU DON’T TRADE IT!”
Enjoy these two higher time frame charts today because who knows what they’ll look like come Friday.
I’ll leave you with this gem from Oscar Goullet on Twitter which all but sums today and tomorrow up from a technical analysis point of view:
CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
USD Crude Oil Inventories
Make the switch to true ECN Forex Broker Vantage FX today!
This is a guest post originally appeared on Vantage FX blog. Reposted with permission.