US Election Day 2016: Look at the Markets


It is #ElectionDay 2016!

With Clinton being into $1.18 on Betfair at the moment of writing, stocks are currently up, risk currencies are on the rise and Gold is going down as the Democrats become likely to win.

But with the increased risk, spreads widening and increased margin requirements in play, I want to stress that from a risk management point of view, how reckless taking positions from this point onward would be. Yes, that is a Forex broker’s official blog saying this. Don’t throw away your trading year for the sake of being in the market!

What do we do in the meantime though? Let’s take a look back at AUD/USD and the current state of play in the pair.

Now if you’re a reader of this blog, you’d know our long-term bias toward Aussie longs into the still possibly distant FOMC rate hike decision. We’ve been going on about it for what seems like forever, all based off first of all, the technical bounce off weekly support in our May AUD/USD view here:

AUD/USD weekly

AUD/USD weekly

Then once that higher time frame level held, looking for a daily breakout, highlighted in our September AUD/USD view here.

AUD/USD daily

AUD/USD daily

One indication of the volatility we’re likely to see today once some of the first vote counts start trickling through is the vertical rally we’re seeing in risk currencies such as the Aussie Dollar. All before things have even started to be properly counted.

The more hawkish than expected November RBA statement has seen the AUD/USD break out of the daily triangle we have been watching and the early Clinton lead looks set to give it the momentum to hold.

AUD/USD 15 minute

AUD/USD 15 minute

Once again, DO NOT ruin your trading year by forcing yourself to be in the market when you know you don’t have to.

Good luck…

This Wednesday

USD Presidential Election

This is a guest post originally appeared on Vantage FX. Reposted with permission.

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